1. Impact of US Tariff Policy on Vietnam's Textile Industry

The US implementation of 20% tariffs on apparel from Vietnam will create significant changes in both the short and long term for the entire industry.

1.1. Short-Term Impact: Narrowing Profit Margins

Export costs to the US market will inevitably increase, directly reducing the profit margins of Vietnamese businesses. This is particularly sensitive since the US accounted for nearly 39% of Vietnam's textile export turnover in 2024, meaning the new tariff immediately impacts the "backbone" of the industry.

1.2. Long-Term Impact: Supply Chain Shift

The larger risk involves the restructuring of the global supply chain. Due to Vietnam's significant reliance on imported raw materials (particularly in the dyeing and weaving stages), rules of origin in trade agreements can become a barrier when tariffs are imposed. A portion of orders may shift to South Asia (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan) or neighboring ASEAN countries (Cambodia, Indonesia).

2. Comparative Analysis of National Competitiveness

To assess the risk of order shifts, a holistic analysis of factors including tariffs, labor costs, and raw material self-sufficiency (through the industry's Value Added Ratio) is required.

Commentary on Competitive Capacity

This multi-dimensional comparison highlights Vietnam's main challenges:

• Labor Cost Pressure: Vietnam’s minimum wage is significantly higher than Bangladesh ($113/month) and Pakistan ($135–$140/month). While the US tariff on Vietnam (20%) is equal to Bangladesh and only 1% higher than Pakistan, the labor cost advantage of South Asia will be magnified, making their final price highly competitive.
• Raw Material Dependency: Vietnam's Textile Value Added Ratio (6.5%) is much lower than Bangladesh (12%) and Cambodia (11–12%). This reflects a substantial reliance on imported raw materials, leaving Vietnam vulnerable to strict rules of origin and the Transhipment risk (40%) that the US may impose.
• Opportunities for Rivals: Although India faces the highest tariff (25%) and Indonesia has a very low Value Added Ratio (1.9%), these nations can still attract orders from Vietnam due to lower costs (India) or diversified supply networks (Indonesia).

3. Strategic Outlook and Recommendations

3.1. Competitive Positioning and Sustainable Advantages

Vietnam maintains a crucial role in the global textile supply chain. While the 20% US tariff and rising labor costs may erode price advantages, political stability, a sustainable investment environment, and higher labor quality remain strong competitive benefits compared to regional rivals.

3.2. Strategic Solutions for Enterprises

To maintain its position, the Vietnamese textile industry must prioritize investing in value-added factors, particularly meeting requirements for rules of origin, ESG, and Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR).

3.3. The Role of Valuation in a Context of Risk

As the textile industry faces the risk of supply chain shifts, transparent and accurate valuation of core assets is critically important:

• Enterprise Support: Accurate valuation of land plots, factory premises in industrial zones, and machinery equipment supports businesses in making strategic decisions on production, expansion, or divestment.
• Credit Risk Control: Assists credit institutions in controlling risk when financing a sector facing significant policy fluctuations.
• Policy Planning: Updated valuation reports are a tool for local authorities to monitor trends, thereby enabling more effective planning for infrastructure development and FDI attraction.